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Impearls: Economies & Areas II - Largest economies of the world: Updated to 2001

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Earthdate 2003-01-19

Largest economies of the world – Updated to 2001

UPDATE:  2003-02-04 18:00 UT:  This entire table has been updated and republished here.
 

To bring Impearls' earlier article on California's place in the world's economies up to date, following is an updated table, based on the CIA's recently released 2002 World Factbook, of all the world's economies (including U.S. states amongst the nations) having GDPs, during 2001, in excess of $200 billion U.S. dollars. 
 

Table 1.  Top Nations/States of the World ranked by GDP
(according to the CIA's 2002 World Factbook)

Rank State Area (km2) Pop. 2002-07 (106)
CIA 2002 Factbook
2001 GDP (1012 US$)
CIA 2002 Factbook
2001 GDP
(LAEDC)
1 United States 9,629,091 280.562,489   10.082   10.082
2 China 9,596,960 1,284.303,705     5.56     1.159
3 Japan 377,835 126.974,628     3.45     4.141
4 India 3,287,590 1,045.845,226     2.5     0.481
5 Germany 356,973 83.251,851     2.174     1.846
6 France 547,030 59.765,983     1.51     1.310
7 United Kingdom 244,820 59.778,002     1.47     1.424
8 Italy 301,230 57.715,625     1.402     1.089
9 California 411,049 34.501,130   1.344,623   1.309
10 Brazil 8,511,965 176.029,560     1.34     0.504
11 Russia 17,075,200 144.978,573     1.2     0.310
12 Mexico 1,972,550 103.400,165     0.920     0.618
13 Canada 9,976,140 31.902,268     0.875     0.694
14 South Korea 98,480 48.324            0.865     0.422
15 New York 127,190 19.011,378   0.799,202  
16 Spain 504,782 40.077,100     0.757     0.582
17 Texas 691,030 21.325,018   0.742,274  
18 Indonesia 1,919,440 231.328,092     0.687    
19 Florida 151,939 16.396,515   0.472,105  
20 Illinois 145,934 12.482,301   0.467,284  
21 Australia 7,686,850 19.546,792     0.465,9     0.357
22 Argentina 2,766,890 37.812,817     0.453     0.269
23 Turkey 780,580 67.308,928     0.443    
24 Iran 1,648,000 66.622,704     0.426    
25 Netherlands 41,532 16.067,754     0.413     0.380
26 South Africa 1,219,912 43.647,658     0.412    
27 Thailand 514,000 62.354,402     0.410    
28 Pennsylvania 117,348 12.287,150   0.403,985  
29 Taiwan 36,000 22.548,009     0.386     0.282
30 Ohio 107,044 11.373,541   0.372,640  
31 New Jersey 20,168 8.484,431   0.363,089  
32 Poland 312,685 38.625,478     0.339,6    
33 Philippines 300,000 84.525,639     0.335    
34 Michigan 151,586 9.990,817   0.325,384  
35 Pakistan 803,940 147.663,429     0.299    
36 Georgia 152,576 8.383,915   0.296,142  
37 Massachusetts 21,456 6.379,304   0.284,934  
38 North Carolina 136,412 8.186,268   0.281,741  
39 Belgium 30,528 10.274,595     0.267,7     0.230
40 Virginia 105,586 7.187,734   0.261,355  
41 Egypt 1,001,450 70.712,345     0.258    
42 Colombia 1,138,910 41.008,227     0.255    
43 Saudi Arabia 1,960,582 23.513,330     0.241    
44 Bangladesh 143,998 133.376,684     0.230    
45 Switzerland 41,290 7.301,994     0.226     0.247
46 Austria 83,858 8.169,929     0.220    
47 Washington 176,479 5.987,973   0.219,937  
48 Sweden 449,964 8.876,744     0.219     0.210
49 Ukraine 603,700 48.396,470     0.205    
50 Malaysia 329,750 22.662,365     0.200    

 

Key to the table.  Population figures for the nations were obtained from CIA 2002 World Factbook national population estimates with regard to July 2002 (2002-07).  The first “2001 GDP” column's data was obtained from 2002 World Factbook national GDP estimates for the year 2001.  The next “2001 GDP” column data was obtained (for nations and the state of California) from the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation (LAEDC), who derived it from OECD and IMF figures.  See this link for LAEDC economist George Huang's letter describing LAEDC's procedure, and this for their table laying out the results.  According to LAEDC's Huang, these figures are what economists generally accept.

Neither the U.S. Census Bureau nor Bureau of Economic Analysis have yet released year 2001 population or Gross State Product figures for the individual states, so the previous year's data will continue to be used until more recent information becomes available.  For U.S. states, population figures were obtained from current U.S. Census Bureau estimates with regard to July 1, 2001 (2001-07-01) (see items noted † in the table).  GDP data (other than the LAEDC column) for U.S. states was derived from currently available Bureau of Economic Analysis “Gross State Product” figures with regard to the year 2000 (see items flagged ‡ in the table).

Changes since 2001 Factbook.  The most notable change since last year's Factbook is the continuing ascent, in the CIA's estimation, of China's economy.  Since the CIA's estimate of $4.5 trillion for China's economy in the year 2000, the CIA now purports to believe that the size of the Chinese economy, as of the year 2001, was 5.56 trillion US$ — an increase of over $1 trillion in just that one year, in sum over half the size of the U.S. economy.  Of course, China's sizable GDP, as well as that of India (whatever their actual size), are spread out over a much larger per capita than that of the U.S.

I also note that both LAEDC's table and the 2002 World Factbook both report a U.S. GDP of 10.082 trillion US$ for the year 2001.  That is indeed what they both report, and I have no explanation for the convergence, save coincidence.

Why are the CIA's estimates sometimes so different from economists?  I've seen no mention of this in the general press, but the CIA World Factbook's figures for the economies of several of the world's major economies — most notably India and China — are very much different (a factor of five-fold in the cases named) from those which (according to LAEDC economist George Huang, for example) are generally accepted by economists.

In the table above, notice how India is shown, in the LAEDC figures, with a GDP of $481 billion US$ for the year 2001; China, a GDP of $1.159 trillion over the same time period.  Contrariwise, according to the CIA's estimation in the 2002 World Factbook, India's GDP was actually $2.5 trillion US$ for the year 2001, while China's was an astounding $5.56 trillion!  Note that China's economy, according to the CIA, grew to that lofty figure by more than $1 trillion in annual GDP since just the previous year (it was $4.5 trillion during year 2000, according to the 2001 CIA Factbook).

If the CIA's estimations are correct, then both India and China substantially outrank California in GDP, which (together with jostling with countries such as France, the U.K., and Italy) places California in ninth place in the world during the year 2001.  Plugging in LAEDC's year 2001 GDP for California ($1.309 trillion), rather than using the BEA's year 2000 GDP for the state ($1.344,623 trillion), causes California to actually drop into tenth position, behind the U.S., China, Japan, India, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, and Brazil.  Of course, ninth or tenth place in the international economic jamboree is not at all bad, when viewed in proper context as the performance of a population of a mere 34 million!

Probably the real story here, however, is why the CIA's assessment of several nations' economies, most notably India and China, is so much at variance with what economists generally accept.  I don't have the answer to that question.
 

UPDATE:  2003-01-24 18:15 UT:  Mystery solved!



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